January 14 2026

Existing-home sales posted a notable year-end rebound in December, jumping 5.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.35 million , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). After adjusting for seasonal factors, December sales were the strongest in nearly three years, marking a broad-based improvement across all four regions. “2025 was another tough year for homebuyers, marked by record-high home prices and historically low home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, in the fourth quarter, conditions began improving, with lower mortgage rates and slower home price growth. December home sales, after adjusting for seasonal factors, were the strongest in nearly three years. The gains were broad-based, with all four major regions improving from the prior month.” Inventory tightened sharply during the month, reflecting typical winter seasonality. Total housing inventory fell to 1.18 million units , down 18.1% from November, though still 3.5% higher than a year ago. The months’ supply of unsold homes dropped to 3.3 months , down from 4.2 months in November. “Inventory levels remain tight,” Yun added. “With fewer sellers feeling eager to move, homeowners are taking their time deciding when to list or delist their homes. Similar to past years, more inventory is expected to come to market beginning in February.” Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, December 2025)

January 14 2026

As we reported last week, the announcement that Fannie and Freddie would buy $200bln in mortgage-backed securities led to a precipitous drop in rates last week. For most of Friday, the top tier 30yr fixed rate was at 5.99% for the average lender according to MND's daily mortgage rate index--the lowest in roughly 3 years.  And that single day of ridiculously low rates was enough to visibly juice application activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 28.5% jump in applications for the week ending January 9th. One small caveat: the prior week’s data included an adjustment for the New Year’s Day holiday, exaggerating the contrast, but the underlying rebound was nonetheless substantial. The Refinance Index surged 40% from the previous week and was 128% higher than the same week one year ago, marking the strongest weekly pace since October.  Purchase activity also strengthened meaningfully. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 16% week-over-week, while unadjusted purchase applications jumped 51% and remained 13% above last year’s level, signaling continued buyer engagement as rates moved lower. “Mortgage rates dropped lower last week following the announcement of increased MBS purchases by the GSEs. Lower rates, including the 30-year fixed rate declining to 6.18 percent, sparked an increase in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Compared to a holiday-adjusted week, refinance applications surged 40 percent to the strongest weekly pace since October 2025. The average loan size for refinance applications was also higher, as borrowers with larger loan sizes are typically more sensitive to changes in rates.”

December 19 2025

Existing-home sales extended their recent stabilization in November, rising 0.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This is the 3rd straight increase and annualized sales are at their highest level in 8 months. The catch is that--much like several other housing metrics--Existing Sales have been stuck in the lowest of gears since late 2022. As long as we continue to operate in this range, it's difficult to draw any conclusions about bigger picture momentum. “Existing-home sales increased for the third straight month due to lower mortgage rates this autumn,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, inventory growth is beginning to stall. With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months.” Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, November 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 510k +4.1% $480,800 +1.1% Midwest 970k -2.0% $319,400 +5.8% South 1.89m +1.1% $361,000 +0.8% West 760k 0.0% $618,900 -0.9%