July 03 2025

Mortgage application activity moved higher last week as rates declined to the lowest levels since April, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index rose 2.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 27. Results were not adjusted for holidays this time around, but the previous week had included a Juneteenth adjustment. “Mortgage rates were lower across all loan types last week, with the 30-year fixed rate declining to its lowest level since April at 6.79 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “This decline prompted an increase in refinance applications, driven by a 10 percent increase in conventional applications and a 22 percent increase in VA refinance applications.” Refinance applications rose 7% from the prior week and are now 40% higher than the same week last year. Purchase applications were flat, rising just 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, the unadjusted index rose 10% week-over-week and remains 16% higher than 2024 levels, continuing a trend of modest year-over-year gains despite short-term stagnation. The average 30-year fixed rate declined to 6.79%—the lowest since April—while points moved slightly lower across most loan types. Mortgage Rate Summary: Loan Type Rate Change Points Change 30yr Fixed 6.79% −0.09 0.62 −0.01 15yr Fixed 6.06% −0.05 0.67 −0.07 Jumbo 30yr 6.78% −0.10 0.40 −0.20 FHA 6.53% −0.06 0.76 −0.09 5/1 ARM 5.99% −0.17 0.60 +0.06

June 27 2025

The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—has remained rangebound for more than two years, constrained by affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates. This week’s update showed a modest improvement, but the broader story hasn’t changed. Pending home sales rose by 1.8% in May, marking the first increase since February. The index is now 1.1% higher than a year ago , but still well below pre-2022 norms. Zooming out, contract activity remains stuck in a narrow band. The index hasn’t been above 80 since the summer of 2022 and continues to reflect a sluggish, rate-constrained housing market. “Consistent job gains and rising wages are modestly helping the housing market,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Hourly wages are increasing faster than home prices. However, mortgage rate fluctuations are the primary driver of homebuying decisions and impact housing affordability more than wage gains.” Here’s how the month-over-month change broke down by region: Northeast: +2.1% Midwest: +0.3% South: +1.0% West: +6.0%

June 27 2025

New Home Sales fell sharply in May according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD. After a brief surge in April, the seasonally adjusted annual pace dropped to 623,000—down 13.7% from April's revised reading of 722,000 and 6.3% lower than the same month last year. When last month's data originally came out, the annual pace of 743k was the highest in several years. The drop brings sales activity back in line with late 2023 levels. While it’s not uncommon to see volatility in this data series, the sharp monthly decline is still notable, especially considering the downward revision to April’s numbers. Inventory rose modestly to 507,000 homes, which at the current sales pace represents a 9.8-month supply—up from 8.3 months in April and 8.5 months a year ago. That’s the highest months’ supply figure since late 2022, and one of the highest in more than a decade. The median price rose to $426,600 in May, a 3.7% increase from April and 3.0% higher than a year ago. The average price rose 2.2% on the month to $522,200, up 4.6% year-over-year. Both measures are now back near the recent highs seen in late 2022. Regionally, the decline in sales was led by the South and West, while the Northeast and Midwest held steadier by comparison. Northeast : 27k (up 4k from April) Midwest : 82k (down 2k from April) South : 365k (down 113k from April) West : 149k (down 9k from April)