Existing-home sales pulled back sharply in January, quickly dashing any hopes that December’s year-end rebound brought, as harsh winter weather and still-tight supply conditions weighed on activity. Sales fell 8.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million, the lowest levels since November 2024. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), transactions were also 4.4% lower than the same time last year, with every region posting both month-over-month and year-over-year declines. “The decrease in sales is disappointing,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. Perhaps an understatement, especially after the strong showing last month. He added that affordability is nevertheless improving, with wage gains outpacing price growth and mortgage rates running lower than a year ago, though supply remains limited. Inventory dipped slightly from December but stayed above year-ago levels. Total housing inventory registered at 1.22 million units, down 0.8% from the prior month and up 3.4% from January 2025. The months’ supply of unsold homes increased to 3.7 months, up from 3.5 months in December. Price pressures persisted. The median existing-home price for all housing types rose to $396,800, up 0.9% from a year earlier and marking the 31st consecutive month of annual gains. Yun noted that homeowners continue to build substantial equity, estimating that the typical owner has accumulated more than $130,000 in housing wealth since early 2020.
Mortgage application activity was essentially flat last week, almost impressively so. After much recent volatility, the index is finding a brief moment of stability, and borrowers seem content continue to weigh affordability challenges and wait for clearer movement in rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications decreased 0.3% (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending February 6, while rising 2% on an unadjusted basis. Purchase demand softened modestly. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index slipped 2% from the prior week, while unadjusted purchase applications increased 4% and were 4% higher than the same week one year ago. Refinance activity posted a small gain. The Refinance Index rose 1% from the previous week and remained 101% higher than a year earlier. Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, described the week as a mixed bag across loan types. While the 30-year fixed rate held steady at 6.21%, conventional applications declined for both purchases and refinances as some borrowers wait for a more meaningful drop in rates or migrate toward other loan types and products. And they appear to be doing just that, as FHA and ARM products saw an increase in apps last week. Kan noted that FHA purchase and refinance applications increased, supported in part by FHA rates that remained roughly 20 basis points below the conforming 30-year fixed rate. He added that borrowers are increasingly turning to FHA loans as affordability pressures persist. At the same time, the ARM share climbed to a seven-week high, with ARM rates running nearly a full percentage point below comparable fixed rates.
Mortgage application activity moved lower again last week, extending the pullback from January’s earlier burst of demand as weather disruptions and softening purchase activity weighed on overall volume. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications declined 8.9% for the week ending January 30. The Market Composite Index fell 8.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis, while rising 4% on an unadjusted basis, highlighting the continued volatility in weekly application data following a period of unusually strong activity earlier in the month. This week, purchase activity took center stage and drove much of the weakness. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index dropped 14% from the prior week, while unadjusted purchase applications increased 2% but were only 4% higher than the same week one year ago—lowest levels since November 2025 and the weakest annual increase since April 2025. Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, pointed to Winter Storm Fern as a key factor, noting that widespread snowfall likely hampered homebuying activity across large parts of the country. Refinance volume also declined, though by a smaller margin. The Refinance Index fell 5% from the previous week but remained 117% higher than a year earlier. Despite mortgage rates edging modestly lower, Kan noted that the change was not significant enough to materially boost refinance demand.
Both the FHFA and the S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller home price indices released November data this week, and the combined message is that home price appreciation continues doing better than it had been in the middle of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index paints clearest picture with seasonally adjusted home prices up 0.6% month-over-month in November and 1.9% year-over-year . This is the 2nd month in a row with price appreciation at the highest levels in more than a year. Both data sets highlight regional differences. Monthly price changes ranged from flat in the Middle Atlantic to +1.1% in the East South Central division. Over the past year, prices declined 0.4% in the Pacific division but climbed as much as 5.1% in the East North Central region—broadly echoing Case-Shiller’s Midwest-versus-Sun-Belt divide. The Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted a 1.4% year-over-year gain in November, unchanged from October. While this is one of the lowest readings of the past several years, it's also one of the first time the index moved higher from the previous month in more than a year. On a month-to-month basis, the seasonally adjusted index rose 0.4% . The 20-City Composite posted a 1.4% annual gain , up slightly from 1.3% previously, and increased 0.5% month-over-month after seasonal adjustment.
Mortgage application activity retreated a bit last week following two weeks of unusually strong volume, although holiday timing played a meaningful role in the weekly comparison. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications fell 8.5% for the week ending January 23, giving back a portion of the recent surge. The Market Composite Index declined 8.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis and was down 16% on an unadjusted basis, reflecting both the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday adjustment and a market that has shown wide week-to-week swings after extended periods of low activity. Refinance volume saw the largest pullback. The Refinance Index declined 16% from the prior week, though applications remained 156% higher than the same week one year ago. Even with the latest decline, refinance demand continues to run well above last year’s levels following January’s earlier burst of activity. Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist said, “With rates holding in the 6 percent range, the refinance market is likely to remain sensitive to week-to-week rate movements.” Purchase activity was comparatively steady. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index dipped just 0.4% , while unadjusted purchase applications fell 4% on the week but remained 18% higher than the same period last year—continuing to suggest that buyer engagement has been more stable than refinance demand at the start of 2026.
Mortgage applications continued to ride the waves from last week's dip in rates, extending the surge that followed early-January rate volatility. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications rose 14.1% for the week ending January 16, adding to the prior week’s sharp increase. Refinance demand again led the way. The Refinance Index climbed 20% from the previous week and was 183% higher than the same week one year ago, marking the strongest weekly pace since September. The magnitude of the increase underscores the widely publicized (but oh so temporary) news that intraday 30yr fixed rates dipped just below 6% for the first time in years. “Mortgage rates declined further last week, driving another big week for refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “These movements prompted greater refinance activity from conventional and VA borrowers, with refinance applications accounting for more than 60 percent of total volume.” The rate rally was swift enough to spill over to purchase demand--a tall order in the world of mortgage apps. The Purchase Index rose 5% week-over-week, while unadjusted purchase applications increased 12% and were 18% higher than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of total applications increased to 61.9% from 60.2% the prior week. ARM share edged up to 7.1% . FHA share fell to 15.9% from 19.2%, while VA share increased slightly to 16.2%. USDA share was unchanged at 0.4%.
Builder confidence slipped to start the year, with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) falling two points to 37 in January. The erasure of December’s modest gains doesn't really do much to change the broader picture: builder sentiment remains stuck in a holding pattern near its lowest levels, weighed down by the usual suspects of persistent affordability challenges and rising construction costs. The underlying components weakened across the board. The index measuring current sales conditions dipped one point to 41, while the gauge tracking prospective buyer traffic fell three points to 23—continuing to solidify its status in “low to very low” territory. Most notably, future sales expectations declined three points to 49, slipping below the breakeven level of 50 for the first time since September. “While the upper end of the housing market is holding steady, affordability conditions are taking a toll on the lower and mid-range sectors,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes. “Buyers are concerned about high home prices and mortgage rates, with down payments particularly challenging given elevated price-to-income ratios.” There was at least a partial offset on the rate front. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz pointed to a recent decline in mortgage rates to the lowest level in three years. However, most survey responses were collected before the announcement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, meaning any benefit from that policy action was largely not reflected in January’s results.
Existing-home sales posted a notable year-end rebound in December, jumping 5.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.35 million , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). After adjusting for seasonal factors, December sales were the strongest in nearly three years, marking a broad-based improvement across all four regions. “2025 was another tough year for homebuyers, marked by record-high home prices and historically low home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, in the fourth quarter, conditions began improving, with lower mortgage rates and slower home price growth. December home sales, after adjusting for seasonal factors, were the strongest in nearly three years. The gains were broad-based, with all four major regions improving from the prior month.” Inventory tightened sharply during the month, reflecting typical winter seasonality. Total housing inventory fell to 1.18 million units , down 18.1% from November, though still 3.5% higher than a year ago. The months’ supply of unsold homes dropped to 3.3 months , down from 4.2 months in November. “Inventory levels remain tight,” Yun added. “With fewer sellers feeling eager to move, homeowners are taking their time deciding when to list or delist their homes. Similar to past years, more inventory is expected to come to market beginning in February.” Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, December 2025)
As we reported last week, the announcement that Fannie and Freddie would buy $200bln in mortgage-backed securities led to a precipitous drop in rates last week. For most of Friday, the top tier 30yr fixed rate was at 5.99% for the average lender according to MND's daily mortgage rate index--the lowest in roughly 3 years. And that single day of ridiculously low rates was enough to visibly juice application activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 28.5% jump in applications for the week ending January 9th. One small caveat: the prior week’s data included an adjustment for the New Year’s Day holiday, exaggerating the contrast, but the underlying rebound was nonetheless substantial. The Refinance Index surged 40% from the previous week and was 128% higher than the same week one year ago, marking the strongest weekly pace since October. Purchase activity also strengthened meaningfully. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 16% week-over-week, while unadjusted purchase applications jumped 51% and remained 13% above last year’s level, signaling continued buyer engagement as rates moved lower. “Mortgage rates dropped lower last week following the announcement of increased MBS purchases by the GSEs. Lower rates, including the 30-year fixed rate declining to 6.18 percent, sparked an increase in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Compared to a holiday-adjusted week, refinance applications surged 40 percent to the strongest weekly pace since October 2025. The average loan size for refinance applications was also higher, as borrowers with larger loan sizes are typically more sensitive to changes in rates.”
Existing-home sales extended their recent stabilization in November, rising 0.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This is the 3rd straight increase and annualized sales are at their highest level in 8 months. The catch is that--much like several other housing metrics--Existing Sales have been stuck in the lowest of gears since late 2022. As long as we continue to operate in this range, it's difficult to draw any conclusions about bigger picture momentum. “Existing-home sales increased for the third straight month due to lower mortgage rates this autumn,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, inventory growth is beginning to stall. With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months.” Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, November 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 510k +4.1% $480,800 +1.1% Midwest 970k -2.0% $319,400 +5.8% South 1.89m +1.1% $361,000 +0.8% West 760k 0.0% $618,900 -0.9%
